Methodology
Every number on this page is calculated, and this is how. A number nobody can check is a number nobody believes.
How to read
What we do not know is stated too.
- What is an event?
- Several reports about the same thing are read together. The original reports stay available beside the summary.
- What does the colour mean?
- Colour marks the media signal: how much is being reported. It does not say how dangerous a place is and does not predict the next event. There are two exceptions. The violet “Summary in preparation” label means the AI is still writing the summary, and says nothing about the event itself. Yellow, orange and red on weather warnings are Meteoalarm’s colours: they show the warning level the national weather service issued, not Vidik’s media signal.
- What is the “Off topic” strip?
- Sport, entertainment, lifestyle and forecasts are not what Vidik is about. When the local classifier judges, with at least 70% confidence, that none of a story’s sources reports an event, the story goes to the “Off topic” strip on the news page: it is not deleted and its link works, but it stays out of the map, the signal, alerts and the daily brief. Official sources, and languages the classifier cannot read, are never set aside. Sources do not carry such stories equally, so for each period the strip also states what share of the stories from each country’s sources was set aside. The share is counted only among stories the classifier reads: it never sets aside a story in another language, so that share would always be zero.
- How precise is a location?
- A full mark means a place the sources named and the register recognises. An area mark means we know the municipality or town, not the exact address.
- How fresh is the data?
- Every view carries the time of its snapshot. We separate when something happened, when it was published and when it last materially changed.
- What does a satellite see?
- A satellite registers heat. A detection is not a confirmed fire, and the absence of a new detection is not confirmation that a fire is out.
- Where do the weather warnings come from?
- The national weather services issue them, and Vidik takes them from Meteoalarm (EUMETNET – MeteoAlarm, licensed CC BY 4.0) every two minutes. The level, the regions, the period and the text of a warning are the service’s. We show the text unchanged and in full, in every language it was issued in and in the service’s own alphabet; the region names and the summary beside it are Vidik’s. Meteoalarm asks everyone who redistributes its warnings to publish this notice: “Time delays between this website and the www.meteoalarm.org website are possible. For the most up-to-date awareness information as published by the participating National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, please refer to www.meteoalarm.org.”
- What do we cover, and what not?
- The region is the Western Balkans; the number of tracked sources per country and per municipality is published. An event whose text is about a country outside the region is counted under World, which lists the newest 60, and is not drawn on the map.
What one event is
How often this updates
Language and script
What counts as an event from this region
The map and location precision
Severity
| How many independent sources report it | 40 |
|---|---|
| Base weight of the category | 20 |
| Trust in the strongest source | 10 |
| Whether an official source reports it too | 10 |
| How sharply coverage is accelerating | 10 |
| How many people live in the affected area | 5 |
| Weight-carrying words in the text | 5 |
| total | 100 |
What each term contributed is stored with the event, so the sum can always be broken back down.
Signal bands
| Low | 0–19 |
|---|---|
| Moderate | 20–39 |
| Strong | 40–69 |
| Very strong | 70–100 |
Coverage and asymmetry
| FBiH | 42 src / 79 mun. = 0.53 |
|---|---|
| RS | 19 src / 63 mun. = 0.30 |
| Brčko | 3 src / 1 mun. = 3.00 |
Coverage is a bloc’s tracked sources divided by its municipalities. The ramp stops at one source per municipality, so Brčko clips off the top.
What is missing
Sources
Sources — BiH 88 · region 25 · asymmetry FBiH 0.53 : RS 0.30 per municipality
What a machine writes, and what it does not
Event timelines
People, names and judicial status
Until a judgment is final, the presumption of innocence applies. That is how we write, and it is stated on every event page concerning a legal proceeding.
The sources’ copyright
Corrections and right of reply
Calendar
The calendar lists dates known in advance to draw coverage: elections and statutory deadlines, and announced gatherings. It is not a forecast — we do not claim something will happen, only that something is scheduled. An entry for an announced gathering stays accurate even if nobody turns up, because it records the announcement rather than the outcome. The calendar deliberately lists no anniversaries and no religious observances. The rule is: what an institution scheduled, and seasons that recur — not commemorations. Listing some anniversaries and not others would be a position, and listing all of them would still ask a reader to accept our reason for putting their date on a risk calendar.
Dates from reporting
The calendar also takes dates from the news. When a report announces a protest, a blockade, a strike, a session, a law coming into force, an election or a planned power or water cut, the model quotes the exact words the date was announced in, and a rule, not the model, works out the day from them. A protest, blockade or strike enters only once two independent sources or one official source carry it; the rest enter on one source. Such an entry is labelled “According to reports” with its number of sources and links to the event it was taken from. When an institution publishes the same date itself, its entry wins and the event is attached to it. The calendar therefore inherits the unevenness of coverage: places the press writes about more get more dates, and we publish coverage by country on this page. Planned cuts from a published schedule come only from Elektroprivreda BiH for now, and cover only its area of the Federation of BiH; from the rest of the Federation, Republika Srpska, Brčko District and the neighbouring countries, only cuts the press reports enter the calendar. That is a difference in sources, not in reality.
What these numbers are not
Vidik measures media signal intensity. It does not predict events and it does not assess danger.
Not an emergency service. In an emergency call 122, 123 or 124.